4S Ranch McMansion homes already lost 15-20%
Ex/Spring 2006 Grand Opening Silhouette Phase 1A 3000+sq ft SFH

Plan 1 786K
Plan 2 860-880k
Plan 3 880K

currently available lots that fell out of escrow
Plan 2 740-780K plus 20K incentive
Plan 3 740K plus 20K incentive

Approx 15-20% drop in last 16 months for new homes from the builders. Resale homes have not caught up yet, however it is only a matter of time. Not sure how much lower these 3000 sq ft homes will go and so I will be watching, waiting, renting, and saving in order to get a good deal.