On the contrary . . . I am a very skeptical person who wants to see some hard information to base a crucial decision on (when is the right time to buy a SFH in a decent neighborhood in SD). Anecdotes and pontifications that “the market is going done 50% from here guaranteed . . . .” etc. etc. blah blah blah don’t interest me. Much of what I read here is this type of gibberish, but certainly not all. There is some very good information from some very sound reasoned persons. The problem I think is that aside from this group (the sound reasoned group) there is a healthy group of what I think of as the Piggington “sour grapes crowd” which is to say people who either 1) missed the last boom entirely and are bitter and hoping for a catastrophic decline to rectify their poor judgement of the past, or 2) people who either weren’t financially in a posistion to buy during the early stages of the boom or people (like me) who moved to SD towards the end of the boom and lament this coming to the party late. This leads to a lot of emotion and wishful thinking behind much of their statements. At least with respect to the first group, they totally mis-timed the market on the way up whats not to say their same flawed reason is going to make them mis-time the market when it bottoms and turns WHICH EVENTUALLY IT WILL DO . . . . The key question is when (if only I had that crystal ball I’ve been searching for . . . .). I have lived through various asset market ups and downs in both RE and equities. It is my experience that the actual moment of the turn is discerned by very few and that those few had the discipline to view things in a dispassionate and critical way devoid of emotion. The bottom line is its possible to detect signs or harbingers of a turn (up or down) but very few do it. Everyone else is left with the “damn I woulda coulda shoulda” after the turn is clearly evident and its either too late or very late. I throw up questions to PIGS and do get back nuggets of good info from the PIG crowd, but at the same time have to abide the mindless blather of the “sour grapes” crowd. One leading indicator (for those in Rio Linda that means the turn has not happened yet but a clue that it may be coming) of a turn is stablizing inventory. SD inventory has stablized yet other factors still indicate that bottom is distant. I just want to time the most significant financial decision I probably will make in the future (by a SFH in SD in a good neighborhood) as closely to the bottom as possible . . . . thats all. 🙂
