I followed South Riverside county a great deal (5-7 hours each day all least year). It will be at 2002 prices but every downturn in history has over shot so who knows. I have made it a point to buy when it makes sence (in Temecula). 250k for 2,000 sqft house on a 10,000+ lot or I will never buy. Looking at the tons of foreclosures already out, I will hit that mark and send low bids to banks by the end of this year.

PS.. I stated on my website back in July that a small 3 bedroom house will be listed at 299k by the end of 2006. Nov. 28th one listed. I would put money on this. Anyone up for a fun wager via paypal let me know (10-20 bucks or something).

“I’m thinking that this time around the declines won’t be as bad compared to other areas as last time, but they’ll still be significant.”

Go on craiglist, there are bunch of short sales and banked owned properties already, I don’t think that’s a good sign for that area.

Temecula pros and cons
Pros:
-great weather, I mean GREAT weather (many sunny days)
-one of least smoggy cities in socal(afternoon breeze common)
-general topography is attractive(natural rolling hills/trees)
-relatively close to mountains, beaches, deserts, big cities(LA/SD)
-nice wineries(kind of)and old town(kind of)
-pretty clean and safe
-seems to be great for families and kids(tons of
schools/activities/sports, good schools)
-many churches
-decent amount of parks
-best city planning of all nearby cities(clearly not perfect)
-some nice dinning options
-still some ranches/equestrian left
-Pechanga Casino?(mostly a big CON for me)
-busy mall

Cons:
-growing way too fast
-city traffic is horrible& murrieta even worse
-freeway traffic horrible at times(215 is the worst)
-expensive homes(by nature this may end soon)
-limited singles activity/nightlife
-most careers are in retail/education/Guidant Corp./real estate:( ,very few college degree or corporate type jobs here
-most people with real jobs commute to SD/OC/LA/Riverside and with BAD traffic getting worse and pricey gas getting pricier this is a BIG Con!!!
-even though many, many dinning options, waits can still be over an hour
-Pechanga Casino – causes traffic, gambling addictions, alcoholism, promotes the evil and sin in many(just my .02)
-rat race is here to stay(people in New York City appear to be more mellow)
-rude/materialistic/overly vain/fake/snobby population growing at an alarming rate. The keeping up with the Jonse’s reality show should be filmed here.
-not the quiet ranch like town it once was
-mass transit hasn’t really arrived yet?
-very inconsiderate drivers and many times dangerous. Local drivers are the worst and rudest I’ve seen, yet they seem to be ignored by local PD especially Murrieta PD, but you will get pulled over for tinted windows.
-busy mall is packed full of “Mall Rats” who feast on energy drinks and vanity.
-culturally not that diverse
-Medical facilities are sub-par, packed, and just suck. Best local hospital is in Fallbrook. The two in Murrieta are bad.
-no local rivers and the few local lakes we have are filthy/crowded or not suitable for recreation
-closest 4 year college over 35 min away
-closest community college is 20 min away and is mediocre
-DMV, Costco, IN’n’OUT are BERSERK and require extreme patience almost all the time!!
-even though the city is growing fast and many people live here, it seems that your business still becomes everyone’s business

Here is an example of the last down turn in Temecula. There was a 10 acre equestrian property in the De Luz area, with a nice home and nice facilities. It went on the market for $850K. At that time, this was a pretty high price. One year later I put an offer on it for $225K. My offer was too late. It actually sold for $220K. Be patient. Temecula and Murrieta will again be hit hard. Sure there’s more going on there now, but it’s also way over built. As prices go down in Escondido, San Marcos, and Oceanside, San Deigo commuters will be attracted to those areas. I bet the percentage of people who live and work in the Temecula area is pretty low. Again, be patient. No one knows how low it will go, but I doubt we’re near the bottom yet.

My two cents to the original post . . .

Wait as long as you comfortably can. If you find the property you love and it is priced right, then perhaps that is the time to buy. I say “love” . . . so you better LOVE it.

My recipe as one who just left the OC homeownership club . . .

Generally, figure our the historical Year Over Year appreciation in your area for the last 10 to 15 years. Then, take the value of your property at the beginning of say 1998 and then calculate the Y-O-Y appreciation up to the current date. If you find that a property is “reasonably” within a comfort zone for you if you LOVE the property, then that might be the buy for you. If it is still out of the ballpark, then decide whether that piece is worth the added cost for 30 years. If so, buy the house. If not, wait awhile longer and save yourself another year’s salary.

DD

I agree with kev374!