I just ran some quick numbers for my area and here is what I found.
South Carlsbad had 25 resales detached homes close in January 2006. In January 2007 we already have 26 and with todays EOM closings combined with late reporters volume should be up at least 25 over last year.
Encinitas had 22 resales detached homes close in January 2006. In January 2007 we already have 33 and with todays EOM closings combined with late reporters volume could be double last year.
Countywide had 1,263 resales detached homes close in January 2006. In January 2007 we already have 912 and with todays EOM closings combined with late reporters volume should be down about 10% vs. last year.
South Carlsbad had 25 resales detached homes close in January 2006. In January 2007 we already have 26 and with todays EOM closings combined with late reporters volume should be up at least 25% over last year.
Good question. I am wondering if some of these sales were triggered by large price reductions. Would make sense because towards the end of last year we started to see some significsant reductions. Whether this would show up in January’s median is anyones guess since we all what a poor measure the median is.
What is your view of price changes in those two areas?
I concur. What’s the average/sq-ft and median/sq-ft price this year compare to 2006? That would give a much better pictures. If the price drops, that mean sellers are getting more realistic and buyers are snapping up what perceived to be deals. If the price rises, then I guess those area are immune to the decline so far. That might confirm a theory that decline start w/ cheaper homes and move to more expensive homes.
When I checked at category of homes I am looking at right now for a client here is what I found. I looked at houses built since 1998 with 2800 to 3500 sq ft. It was a pretty small sample for both years both the results are probably fairly indicative here.
Jan 2006 – avg price per sq ft about $315 and nothing under $300.
Jan 2007 – avg price per sq ft about $285 and nothing over $300.
This was easy for me to answer as I had already included this in my research. I’ll have to get back to you on the countywide data.
18 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $322 for 1551 sq ft home
17 detached sales so far for Jan 2006 (expect a few more to show up)
Avg price per sq ft was $300 for 1487 sq ft home (smaller houses typically sell for higher price per sq ft due to fixed costs so the decline is actually more than it appears)
sdr, I am seeing quite similar numbers in some of the zips off the I15 corridor. I am sure people will interpret the numbers in lots of different ways. My interpretation is that the market is normalizing to the price reductions… at least for now.
SD R,
I agree. The big question is how much more is coming on the market and what will sellers do when they realize that the comps are lower limiting the price they can get an appraisal for even if they found a buyer willing to pay a higher price.
So, according to the stats, average price per sq-ft went down about 11% county wide and 10% in the La Costa South Carlsbad area. Seems like it’s what we’ve been expecting to see. sdr, can you give the stats for 92121, 92126, 92129, 92130 if you don’t mind. Thanks in advance.
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