If you look at an inflation adjusted chart of any boom, stock housing whatever. The down slope almost always completes into a near perfect bell curve. So depending on where you think this boom started, 2000 maybe?, then you can predict that it will fall to 2000 prices adjusted for inflation. It is also important to see that the downslope is almost always the same length as the up, showing that the bottom won’t occur until about 2013 or so.

The real X-Factor is that the government has been hiding the true rate of inflation so it isn’t all that easy to adjust the prices. It may well be that by 2013 inflation will have kept non-adjusted housing prices more or less steady.