You have a higher risk appetite than I do being so focussed and trying to time things. I have a well modeled widely diversified portfolio set up and managed by Merrill. For years my XOM and ENB lagged. Each year I would ask during my annual review whether we should get rid of it. The answer was always let the dividends build your position over time at these low valuations and their day will come. The number of share has probably doubled since Ive held it and now their day has come. Thats why I beleive in hiring professionals for important jobs that involve lots of money

Ironically the one energy company I got rid of has done nothing and it was the right call. Sold it about 3 years ago. Im not gonna claim any credit though. It was Kinder Morgan and they sent me a K-1 each year with international income. I got rid of it because I do my own taxes and hated dealing with that each year. Better lucky than good