You dont buy SD Case-Shiller to live in or rent out you buy a home. Its an index. I think we all know its flawed with limitations. Its best use is directionality rather than real magnitude. My example was real actual example not some derived mathematical calculation.

Real example: A model match to my neighbors house with far inferior lot sold across the street from us in June 2013. We have a perfect example! It sold for 10% more than the neighbors Nov 2003 price. The lot premium would add another 5 to 10%. Had my neighbor sold his house in June 2013 (and I wish he did as he’s not my favorite) the price wouldve been close to 20% above the Nov 2003. Indexes dont tell the real story. The real story tells the real story

One more real story. I have a bunch of folks trying to buy homes now some of whom are regular readers/lurkers here. We routinely run into 10 plus offers on homes priced at comps with negotiated prices typically 5% and in many cases more above asking prices. That leaves a pile of unfilled orders. I wouldnt expect a decline in Spring as even a remote possibility around here