Understood and I am focusing solely on the market in which we live iand I operate. my point is some thing I have long been trying to explain here and other places. while in the stock market you can buy indexes and averages. In real estate you buy a single home which has returns both financial and personal. Those returns can vary greatly from place to place including two houses right next to each other bought at the same time. Don’t get me wrong, I love following the data and the pundits but that is not what I use for decision making. I use experience and analysis specific to each property.

and for what it’s worth I don’t think the baby boomer downsizing will have a huge impact here. I look at myself as a perfect example. I have a home more than twice what I need in size but my mortgage is less than the rent for a one bedroom condo around here. I have an assessed real estate tax basis from 20+ years ago and selling would incur a very large income tax bill. I’m not going anywhere I just look forward to enjoying this place and sharing good times and great wines with friends and family here 🙂

That’s not to say there will not be boomers downsizing. There are just structural market forces at play here that will greatly temper that specifically in California and more specifically in San Diego County