That site had some suspect numbers the last few days.
Number of critical cases in the US was stuck at 64 and at one point today’s New Deaths was larger than yesterday’s Critical Cases number. I sent them a note.Seems they updated it. 2% of active cases now critical.
US data Yesterday showed a possible inflection point on 3/20. The first break in the exponential growth. Not saying it will continue to break but something to watch.
Going to be a few weeks before those numbers can start to look good because of the 14-day incubation period and the amount of time it takes to shed the virus. Right now all the cases going into “closed” status are the early ones, which were likely people in very bad condition who waited to long to seek treatment.
I’m not sure that data is very useful given they aren’t testing random samples of the population. Maybe CDC using this “test only the infected” to heighten people’s acceptance of self-quarantine plans.
The testing process isn’t a random sample by any means so there is no way we can infer death rates from these at all.
I read somewhere that the 1.4% death rate in China was 1.4% of people who showed symptoms and tested positive. I can’t find that link. We have no information about how many people who might be infected but show now symptoms.
I think an endgame needs better testing and that stay-at-home orders are a result of not having good testing and reasonable random-sample statistics.
I still think the end game is this looks like the flu with a deadlier start-up year. I think it will be seasonal, fairly pervasive, immunizations available, better treatment plan, death-rate down near 0.1% of INFECTED people and much worse for the old.
It is the birth of a new flu, which we have been living and dying with for decades so I don’t think it will change our life much at all, come Summer.
