[quote=flu]If history is going to be a guide for how the Coronavirus can play out , skip the normal social and cyclical economic models that people were using to predict a recession. This pandemic event is nothing like we’ve seen in modern times.
A closer model would be the one time pandemic event in 1918 also known as the Spanish Flu. That seems to be a more appropriate model of how things can play out. We haven’t had any other major pandemic event since then.
The majority of the death from that was surprise surprise from a cytokine storm.
The killer wasn’t the first wave of that flu. The killer was the second wave that occurred in August that was a deadlier mutation of the first that affected those that weren’t infected by the first wave had not built immunity to the second mutated flu. Which begs the question , if this Coronavirus is bad now, what’s a mutated version going to look like.[/quote]
You went down the same thought process I did flu in that the 1918 epidemic is the closest equivalent. I have actually followed that event quite a bit because my grandmother’s brother died from the 1918 strain while living in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was a divorced 38 year old male with one child. I have inherited some of his belongings and they are fascinating.
In any case, no telling whether there will be a mutated version, and we certainly know a helluva lot more about medicine 100 years later. But I’m with you that this isn’t going to be a one month thing. It will likely affect us all into and possibly through the summer.
We had a discussion about this topic around the kitchen island last night and we all agreed with that time frame.
