I think reality is already happening. Not just China. No foreign creditor wants to buy any paper other than treasuries. No liquidity in Mortgages, Commercial paper, LBOs even munis. Next shoe to drop will be credit card and auto loans. By then we will have full fledged recession.

Already LBO value of Home Depot was negotiated down by $1.5B.

So instead of going round in circles, go straight and short US market. Long on essentials, short on “desirables”.