At least.

There are ten times as many homes on the market now as there were a year ago and that’s not including those who pulled out hoping for a better entry point this Spring. Most of the existing homes have been sitting for at least six months with many of them well over a year. There are a number of high-rise condos going up everywhere and the ones on Jamboree in Irvine near UCI have had big reductions already. They are planning up to 4500 homes in the “Legacy” “infill/re-use” project right down the street where the Tustin base was:

http://www.buildernewsmag.com/viewnews.pl?id=228

“The Tustin Legacy development will include 9.3 million square feet of office, commercial and retail space, and up to 4,500 homes. These will be integrated with learning and recreational uses to realize the long-term potential of the site.”

And if this isn’t enough there are another 3,500 homes yet to be built by Lennar in the Great Park (former El Toro base) alone. There have been articles in the Register and Times about more companies moving out of commercial spaces because of the high rent factor. There are hundreds of buildings for lease signs all over O.C. Now they have another new development in Tustin/Irvine giving the Newport-Mesa competition and more potential for cannibalization from city to city.

Add to this the Newport Coast expansion (where they sold one or two homes in October and November) with their mega-million dollar boxes sitting empty and you have more than enough homes to last five to ten years at the current rate. At least the high-rise condos in the Anaheim-Orange area were priced in the mid 400’s so they sold many of them. Rent and lease signs have sprouted up everywhere in South O.C.and they still can’t find tenants. With a 9% affordability index the O.C. south is seeing a huge migration into north county and other more affordable areas. With many loans due for another reset it should get very interesting by the time the tax man comes.