When people debate whether Carmel Valley or Scripps will correct more than 20% that's a subject in which reasonable people can disagree at this point. I don't think most people would disagree that Temeku and its surrounding environs are in for at least another 20% hit and the way things are going right now it could well be double that.
I would tend to agree with bugs. The issues that I see with places like Temecula, Otay Mesa, and Oceanside, is that I think there were a lot of people who had questionable income versus the price of the homes in these areas. Just looking at the foreclosures stats Temecula and Oceanside are in the top 500 zip codes of foreclosures
I'd be curious to see the relative percentage of income disparity from cost of a home in those areas, versus other areas like CarmelV, Rancho P, Scripps Ranch, etc. I've asked for the stats from anyone, but so far no one has been able to provide them..It's probably too difficult to do this. I myself can't because I don't have access to a lot of this data. If I were to guess, I would say the income disparity is far greater in areas like Temecula/Oceanside/Otay Mesa, than others..If that's the case, I would guess that that foreclosures in that area are going to snowball into more foreclosures as people that were marginally ok are going to be sucked into a trap, as property values further decline and as it's harder to qualify for loans (being double whammied by both property depreciation and questionable income that made it hard for folks to qualify for a conventional 30/15 year fixed loan to begin with)….hence, for those areas I don't think we're even half way there to completing a price correction yet in those areas.
Furthermore, we really haven't even begun to see a meaninful price correction in areas like LJ/CarmelV/Scripps etc. I'm not going to debate how much that will be. However, I think everyone is more or less in agreement that it's going to happen more.
