all real estate is local, where are you looking? Are you selling? If you are moving up in the same area your risk is diminished either way the market goes. If you already sold and are trying to time the market, that can be very difficult. I only ask because 1.2 mil is a bit high for first time buyers.

Not all areas have recovered to their peaks but most have, however it’s been a decade so 30-50% is normal for 10-11 years at 3% to 5% a year. The last bubble was driven by liar loans and novice speculators without capital, I do not believe that is what is going on now. Depending on where it is, looking for a 10% nominal drop can be unrealistic, flat pricing is more realistic. Right now wages are rising but housing rose faster, since housing needs buyers sometimes it stalls out or is flat until buyers can catch up. Move up housing needs buyers to be able to sell in order to buy, so when the entry level struggles, it can trickle up.

I can tell you that when the great recession hit nd prices fell, they didn’t fall at the same percentages and at the same time. It hit harder and faster from the outside in, from the newer areas to the older and it barely touched some housing types and areas. The North Coastal areas of SD were almost immune and the inland exurbs saw 50% reductions, everything else seemed to fall in between.

The one thing that can shock the r/e market failed to materialize, if it comes back and somehow passes (SB 50) it will boost supply and probably hurt prices, but it’s not likely to affect the 7 figure market, just the lower end. That bill allows density increases and will take the zoning power away from city councils and planning commissions when planned housing is near transit stops. It would make it cheaper and easier to build apartments and condos. Older SFR neighborhoods could become a mix of craftsman’s next to 5 story apartment complexes with no parking requirements. I’m not sure it will ever pass or in what form but it would shake up the market in certain areas, but not this year.