The Fed normally holds steady or even lowers just before a recession. (See 20y plot below.) If anything, the Fed holding steady at 2.5-3% would be a sign of a coming recession.
Rates hit 6.75% just before dot.bomb, hit 5.25% just before the housing skell-dump. Lower and lower each time — a lower plateau doesn’t guarantee an opportunity (aka recession) won’t happen…
