Florida growth goes from wild to mild

Population experts point to economic factors that are cooling the Sunshine State’s appeal.

Babita Persaud
Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted December 22 2006

For those who gripe that Florida is growing too fast, you may have gotten your wish.

A U.S. census report out today shows that the boom for the Sunshine State has slowed, with Florida growing only 1.8 percent in 2006 after back-to-back years of adding more than 2 percent to the population.

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So, is this just a blip?

“No,” said Stefan Rayer, research demographer at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “It’s back to normal.”

In 2005, Florida was ranked No. 4 in the list of fast-growing states, just behind Nevada, Arizona and Idaho.

This year, Florida slips to No. 9.

William Frey, a demographer with The Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank, said economics is playing a role.

“Generally, people are moving where it is not so pricey,” he said.

And that is not Florida, he said.

Before, a few states were the select hot spots. Now, people are spreading around, Frey said. “They are going where housing is affordable.”

Florida’s existing-home median price — half the homes sold for more, half for less — tops $240,000. Costs are higher in markets such as Orlando — at a quarter-million dollars — and South Florida, where many homes are fetching $350,000.

On top of a mortgage, for those who do buy, insurance costs have skyrocketed. Some premiums are up by more than 25 percent since the 2004 hurricane season.

The impact is starting to ripple throughout the state: Home sales are down more than 20 percent, school enrollment shrank in the fall student count, and state government is preparing for a revenue drop based on population projections.

“Florida is still strong economically, and that will continue,” said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “But the momentum has slowed.”

Across other parts of the South, the 2005 tropical-storm season was a factor.

Before Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana’s population was on the rise, growing by 12,000 to 4.5 million by mid-2005.

By the July 2006 count, Louisiana had lost nearly 220,000 residents, about 5 percent.

Where did they go?

Rayer said Katrina’s effect on Florida was probably “marginal,” but “Georgia, North Carolina, Texas — in those states, Katrina is playing a role.” All grew by more than2 percent.

Census issues state population figures annually in December. The period of collecting the 2006 data runs from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006.

Other findings in the new census report:

Arizona was the nation’s fastest-growing state at a 3.6 percent change, breaking Nevada’s grip on the title.

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The Northeast region grew by only 62,000 people. In contrast, the South grew by 1.5 million and the West by 1 million. The Midwest added 281,000 people.

The South now accounts for 36 percent of the nation’s total population, with the West comprising 23 percent, the Midwest 22 percent and the Northeast 18 percent.

Florida remains the fourth-most populous state, with 18.1 million people. More than 321,000 moved here in 2006, off from the 401,000 who showed up between 2005 and 2005.

From the perspective of Priya Rajan, a Central Florida Realtor, “It is not bubbling as much as last year.”

The Orlando Regional Realtor Association projects that 2006 sales will finish above 2004 but below 2005’s red-hot tally of 31,230.

So does that mean less traffic jams for Orlando?

Think again.

Orlando’s rate of growth has hovered around 3 percent in the past few years, Rayer said.

“Of the large metropolitan areas in Florida, Orlando remains the fastest growing,” Rayer said.