people who think about shit too much tend to have worse returns, i think. [/quote]
Agree with you. But also people who don’t think enough.
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I think it’s a blend. Humans have a natural inclination to learn, but for most of history important decisions had to be made within a split second. I think it is important to learn as much as possible and then try to stop analyzing and assume that what you’ve learned has gotten absorbed into your intuition. Warren Buffet is known for this. Both my husband and I were enthusiastic about investing in Ford in 2008 when it was at $1.50 (I’m from Detroit, he is obsessed with everything automotive). Our investment advisor was against it and so we didn’t. It’s gone up 800% since then.
As a hobby I buy vintage items and sell them on an e-commerce site. I made some bad buys when I first started but now I pretty consistently can sell for 3X what I buy for – often more and I haven’t lost on more than a handful of items in the past few years. I used to have to read up a lot, but now I can tell pretty much just by looking at things, even without knowing a lot about them.
One of my resolutions for the New Year is to become better educated on investing, take the returns from the e commerce site and see if I can develop some level of intuition when it comes to investing. I have found the best education is losing money. I hate it, it’s very motivating and very educational – but you have to be willing to do it. On the other hand my fear is that the deck is stacked against small investors. Just ordered this book by Peter Lynch yesterday: https://www.amazon.com/One-Up-Wall-Street-Already/dp/0743200403/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1516648766&sr=1-1&keywords=One+up+on+wall+street
I have quite a bit of knowledge relating to the business ramifications of patent/ trademark/ copyright issues – perhaps I can use it to my advantage (no insider trading, of course). After I finish the book I’ll figure out whether I want to give this all a try.
