[quote=svelte][quote=ltsdd]…If the S&P 500 return for the last 30 years is, say on average 8% per year…[/quote]

I ran the numbers this week. The S&P500 was at 114 in 1980.

Projecting that forward at 8% a year says we should be at 2123 in 2018.

Projecting forward at 9% a year says 3013.

Projecting forward at 10% a years says 4264.

Looks like we are somewhere between 8 and 9 percent at the moment.[/quote]

That 8-9% was below the actual return on S&P from 1980 to now. Dividend yield didn’t factor into your calculation, it actually can juice up the final return quite a bit. Remember 1980s dividend yield was quite high. Going forward I doubt we’ll have that kind of golden bull market return from 80s to now.