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2: New Scottish referendum on separation.
I give the odds of this resulting in separation like 85%.
The UK’s standing and relevance in the EU was a large component of the narrow failure of the last independence bid. That is now gone and Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur…
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The EU has said Scotland cannot remain a member of the EU even if they vote to leave the UK.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html

[quote]
The EU yesterday dealt a devastating blow to Nicola Sturgeon’s new bid for independence – by ruling out any prospect of Scotland retaining its EU membership when Britain leaves.
The SNP leader yesterday said she is seeking ‘immediate discussions’ with Brussels to ‘protect Scotland’s place in the EU’.
But The Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal that the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has already ruled there is no option but the whole of the UK exiting following Thursday’s shock Leave vote.
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The problem is that even if Scotland applies to be a member after it splits from UK the EU probably wouldn’t let them in because Scotland’s budget deficit looks something similar to Greece. Scotland is basically a welfare state that England has been supporting.