I’m still waiting on the no costs costs in th new disclosures.
Overall you’re all over complicating it. Th analysis is simple long term versus short term is relatively moot and you don’t need to worry about all the options out there.
All you need is what your current loan and financial situation is and what the one loan being proposed with what it will cost you in cash today (or rebate). HLS comp for it is a nice to know but irrelevant as you aren’t paying him directly (unless you negotiate to do that and then IMHO you’re bucking the whole industry)
The real key though is we currently are living in a bit of a mortgage bizarro world. There’s a lot of money out there looking for a home. So yes, they will pay you, thousands to take their 30 year mortgage at 3.75% because their alternative is 2.6% on a treasury. Or some other person taking the 3.5% or riskier person taking the same 3.75%
If you keep their loan more than a short period, they come ahead compared to you having their cheaper loan, but you’re still better off than you were.and you would have had to shell out money to get the lower loan.
So just get used to being a cow getting milked, that’s how the industry has relegated you.