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  • November 7, 2006 at 7:08 AM #7857
    BikeRider
    Participant

    A lot to read here, but this person is saying that housing is headed for a soft landing.

    http://news.goldseek.com/ClifDroke/1162752300.php

    November 7, 2006 at 7:57 AM #39383
    The-Shoveler
    Participant

    Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

    Just my two cents, I am no expert BUT !!! , First rent has been going up big time, and rent is 30 or 40 % (don’t know the exact figure) of CPI, so I don’t see the fed lowering rates anytime soon, as for a soft landing, I think you would first have to have a lot of people who could afford to buy these over priced homes, and that not likly to happen in my opinion.

    They may get the loans but then you just have to deal with the comming forclosures sooner or later.

    Deal with the problem now or deal with a bigger problem later, it’s 1996 all over (Your move Ben).

    November 7, 2006 at 11:06 AM #39403
    Mexico Resident
    Participant

    I skimmed through the article and it appears to be based on a bank-centric, liquidity-centric view. There is NO consideration of other fundamentals and market psychology. Can anyone comment on the story’s assertion that REITs are still doing great in the market and this shows real estate is healthy.

    November 7, 2006 at 11:27 AM #39406
    surveyor
    Participant

    Most REITs deal with commercial real estate and are not heavily invested with home builders.

    Besides the housing bubble is not a real estate bubble. It has generally been applicable only to residential real estate like SFRs and condos.

    November 7, 2006 at 9:36 PM #39475
    powayseller
    Participant

    So much for the soft landing. It is kaput!

    Calcuated Risk writes “The Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) hopes to release the State Nontraditional Mortgage Guidance on Tuesday November 14th.” Thanks, CR for keeping tabs on this.

    Finally, the day I’ve been waiting for. About a month or two after this release, home sales should stall, falling by 75% in just a few months. And with lower sales, prices will come under serious pressure.

    November 8, 2006 at 7:38 AM #39487
    PD
    Participant

    There are going to be a lot of lenders who do not follow the guidance.

    November 8, 2006 at 9:02 AM #39493
    kaycee
    Participant

    How can home sales fall 75% from now. They are already at practically zero. At least over here. I’ve given up trying to sell my house, I’ll probably put it up for rent as much as I hate the very thought. I have offered to let my Mother in law move in for free. She may still do that. My sister-in-law decided yesterday to abandon her condo in Florida. She is going to lock the door, turn off the utilities and leave.

    At this point I don’t care if the landing is soft or hard. I just want it to land.

    November 8, 2006 at 9:14 AM #39496
    barnaby33
    Participant

    Kaycee, what part of the country are you in? Sorry to hear that both you and your sister-in-law are having such a hard time.

    I find your comment about just wanting it to land fascinating. Simply because there is always a price at which your place will sell, you just have to find it. If we have a hard landing as alot of us predict its just alot further down than a soft one. So which type of landing would you prefer?

    Josh

    November 8, 2006 at 1:56 PM #39541
    kaycee
    Participant

    Barnaby,

    We are both in the South East. She is in Florida – Miami area. My house is on the water in SC, near Hilton Head. Here the buble is being exacerbated by the Post Katrina/Rita Insurance problem. Apparently insurance companies are not writing new policies. No insurance, no new mortgages, no sales. That plus I think a lot of people, many on this board for example, who are not buying at any price waiting for “the bottom”, “50% off the top” “reversion to mean”, “reversion to 199x or 20xx prices”, etc.

    My brother in law moved in February, so they ( he and my s-i-l) have been seperated since then waiting for her condo to sell. How much longer do you wait while supporting two households?

    I have no problem selling at whatever the bottom turns out to be. I put more than 20% down and I don’t have a toxic mortgage. I’ve just moved and need to sell my house. I’ll take a hard landing if I can sell my house next month. I guess my problem is I don’t want to undersell my house any more than a buyer wants to overpay. Wouldn’t it be great if we all just knew where the bottom was so we could just move on!

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