[quote=wallers]Yes, I have heard all the same arguments about why SD will be stable from realtors.
But one thing that boggles me a bit is that if that were the case then the 1920’s house that took 90 years or so to get to 400k. In 4 years it hit 600k (minimal to no improvements also all loose estimates)but point is 200k in 4 years and 400k over 90 years. Well… that seems off. Maybe not. But from what I understand (and again don’t know) household income has not had even close to that sort of growth. If everyone was moving here and buying up the place and that is why it is what it is I feel there would be a different historical trend. Not everyone decided to move here in the last 4 years. But again maybe I just see what I want to see.
On the investor fleeing comment from what I see they are still in the game. At least where I am looking. I asked my realtor about a fixer house that just went on. Sold all cash in a few days. Think there is a dumpster outside now waiting for the demo to begin. And this house wasn’t a steal of a deal either. For an investor to make money at the price point they paid they are going to have to ask a sizable price even in this market.[/quote]

Your observation concerning why it has taken so many years for homes in San Diego to appreciate at the current level would, imo, be due to the fact that San Diego was not really “on the map” business-wise until around the 80’s, when, companies “discovered” it in a major way, and the need for housing became greater.

Prior to that, it was predominately, a “Navy town,” and also had some other major employers such as the city and county, General Dynamics, Rohr, Hazard Construction, and others, but nothing on the level we see here today. It has also always been a prime destination for retirees.

Many of the families, like mine, who have been here for decades (we all tried different places in the world, but ended up coming back) also got into real estate development and investment, insurance, and other fields to meet the growing demands of the population as the county grew.

So, what you are experiencing as far as property values go at this point in time is the result of this evolution. Can it be sustained?–will property prices continue to up or down?–as others have said–we can all guess, but I don’t think anyone really knows.

If you plan to be here long-term, and can easily afford the investment, it’s definitely something to consider.