I think instead of guessing where the market will go, look at how you want to live your life. People have been saying interest rates will be going up for a few years now and they have all been wrong.
No one knows where interest rates will go, but rates are negative in Europe and Japan has been low for 20+ years?
I think India or some place just cut rates too.
In a global economy, US rates look very attractive compared to other places. I’ve been saving rates won’t move for a long time and even though I guess, it’s been the correct call for the last few years.
All that said, buying a home that you plan to stay in for the long term is a nice feeling. You have a fixed known housing payment and every month, you build a miniscure amount of equity. Also, if rates go higher/lower, and you have more savings, you can buy investment properties or refi.
Since you also have 20% down, that money is doing zip now. If you have more down, you’d probably save money compared to rent and I know in my hood, rents for 3k sqft econoboxes go for near 3800+ now a month. Pretty sick. Add in your tax deduction as well and you are probably ahead if the mortgage is only 200 more a month.
As other conditions are putting pressure like kids and school, HATE renting, I think for your own life/well being, buying isn’t the worst thing in the world if you can afford the payments, like the area you pick, and your mortgage isn’t comparably more than your rent.
Unlike some posters here, I don’t see housing collapsing unless rents collapse. Also, many people who bought in the last five years have high cash flowing properties so may prefer to rent instead of selling if they can (I know a few in my area)…
