I think real estate prices in CA are pretty stable. Maybe we could have a small correction say 5%, but I doubt it. Here are a few reasons:
-a huge % of buyers the last 7 years were all cash (far more then ever in modern history), you can’t default on your mortgage if you paid all cash
-in addition to the huge % of cash buyers, many buyers the last 7 years had very large down payments, they won’t ever default either
-the remaining buyers the last 7 years (fha and va) have really low rate 30 yr fixed fully amortizing mortgages, meaning they are paying down big chunks of loan principle every month creating forced equity
-builders have built virtually nothing the last 7 years, inventory will stay pretty low
What caused the last crash in 2008 was the sudden wave of defaults from all the crazy loans. The lending this time is NOT EVEN IN THE SAME UNIVERSE. 2002-2007 like 60%+ of the mortgages were STATED income, zero down, bad credit. You know the taxi cab drivers and housekeepers buying $600k houses with zero down stated income. We do not have anything remotely like that this time. So I just do not see where all the distressed inventory would come from to cause a large price decline in real estate in the near future.
I know I read all the same perma-bear doom and gloomers that have been saying the last 6-7 years how all hell will break loose any moment, we have so much debt, the whole recovery is fake based on central bank stimulus, income’s aren’t rising, the job numbers are fake, hyper inflation is right around the corner, buy gold, yada, yada, yada. They have been saying the same stuff for 6 years and they will say it every year. That is why they are called PERMA-bears.