The world is really upside down, because appear to be in the bull position here. The housing bulls deserve a reality check when they drop in but it doesn’t mean bears can just shoot off without any support for their arguments either. Texas is way cheaper, homes should return to under 200k, the median income doesn’t support it. Platitudes and cliches, bull or bear, pony up some support for your arguments and I can be swayed. There will may very well be very modest homes for sub 200k, but a median of 70k includes the 30-40% of the people who shouldn’t buy a house and this whole thing started regarding the future price of a home that is not a median home and not in a median area. My point is that 30% off peak is a reasonable guess, 50% off peak is a stretch but not impossible, but 30 or 40 cents on the dollar, good luck with that too. I just see too many people with over a 100k incomes that have been licking their chops for this area and a few others demographicaly similar, there are enough posters on this site that would keep 4-s from more than a 50% nominal drop, I doubt they could control themselves if it goes down another 100 to 200k they way they talk. 4-S will not lose 5% while Temecula and Chula Vista lose 50%, but it doesn’t mean it will be an equal percentage, Those three areas were heavily built and financed in the bubble so the are the most suceptible but they are not equal, 4-s still has a greater appeal and if the repo bargains for the really big ones ever were to hit 400k, the refugees that sold and moved out of state will be back so you better be quick. My final answer is that that house will never go below 500k, final answer, prove me wrong with some facts other than we will be selling apples on the corner scenario.