lawyers sometimes talk about “what a case is worth”.

in terms of money. time.

some cases are pretty predictable; a simple dogbite; a pound of pot at the border.

other cases are more one-off.

how much would a judge or prosecutor think this case is worth?

I think that could vary a lot. odd, hot-button factors at play.
i wouldn’t say the criminal justice system is messed up because of that unpredictability.

I would say that’s an expected consequence of having human beings with human feelings and particular human experiences deciding what the case is worth.