Both Mohamed A. El-Erian and Bill Gross are very smart guys and predicted the macro economic pretty correctly over the last 5+ years, yet they were wrong on their market call. My point is that, it’s much easier to predict macro economic direction than the direction of the market. I would also say it’s much easier to predict direction of the market than predicting the direction of a single stock. It’s much more likely to have a wrench toss into your prediction wrt a single stock than the whole stock market. Which is why I no longer go short on any one stock. The closest I get now to shorting is shorting the entire index if I think the whole market is bubbly.