Roubini lists a Bloomberg survey of forecasters, who predict the employment report would be 100K – 200K new workers.
Roubini says that once the current houses are built and the construction layoffs start, all bets are off. Construction hiring was up 8K in September. So we haven’t even seen the effect of construction layoffs yet.
Not to pick on anyone, but these investment houses and economists are lousy forecasters. So I wouldn’t ask Citibank or Deutsche Bank or ABN Amro or Credit Suisse or any of the others on that list for investment advice, that’s for sure. No wonder economists and analysts have such a bad reputation.
Good idea for a thread, Powayseller. I must admit, I’m starting to like this Robini guy. If a recession starts in early 2007, I think it will last a looooong time because I see nothing good to pull us out of it in early 2008. I still think a recession may be a couple quarters past his prediction, but I am paying attention.
I spoke with a Banc of America person (note the c, not the k). Banc of America is separate and apart from Bank of America, but most people on this Blog probably already know that.
This person said that B of A, (whichever institution is responsible for loaning money to builders) is indeed refusing to loan money on the vast majority RE requesters.
They don’t apparently want to throw good money after potentialy bad, at this time.
When I spoke with this person (good open minded special services provider) the person wasn’t aware of the ARM adjustment deliema. I explained that a small percentage increase in an ARM adjustment could mean quite a large adjustment in the monthly payment.
After tapping it out on the calculator, the B of A rep, said, yeah, that could really be painful.
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