I played tbt for the past few months but don’t think I would touch it now.

As much as people say treasuries will soar if there is a default, I don’t buy it. I should clarify, I don’t think we will default on payments of notes. Not a chance.

TBT and like funds are usually way ahead of the movement. Look at TBT and it moved in late spring and summer when treasuries moved but over the past several weeks has been stuck. Yellen coming in cemented the fact that QE will go on and on. Tapering may happen but it will be very minor. Yellen is a huge fan of the printing press.

The bottom line is you will not see a default or if there is, it will be incredibly short lived and I think will lack the spectacular imagery that the press and the powers that be want you to live in fear about.