Alex, I’m not one of those people that you mentioned. I’m just watching the SoCal & NoCal housing markets from South Carolina after leaving my home(s) in SD of 30 years. Whether you want to believe me or not, I was able to predict this mess with good accuracy and timed it just right when I sold my home and cashed out. My purpose in being on this particular forum is that I would hate to see anybody (other than my sworn enemies who wish me harm) lose their hard earned money by either holding on to a home that they already own and that they absolutely will have to sell within the next 10 years or someone who is thinking of buying a home getting stuck with a super high mortgage payment for 30 years when all they have to do is rent and wait a few years and they’ll be able to buy the same type of home in the same area for 30-50% less. I have a son who still lives in SD and he is renting and saving his money until this whole thing bottoms out. BTW: I’m probably going to move back to SD if I’ve figured this correctly. Can anyone absolutely predict that it will bottom out in 2012? NO! But, my guess is late 2011 or 2012 will either be the bottom or darned close to it. But, even then, prices will not spring back overnight. Buyers who wait for the bottom will have their choice of plenty of properties for sale. Even the richest investors will not buy a property in SD at the present prices because they won’t get a decent net return on their money. The majority of markets in the USA have nice single family housing for $175-$250k. Houses above that level are usually luxury homes. CA wages are not that much higher than those in other markets that offer these homes so now that the brokers won’t be selling mortgages for $600k houses to window cleaners and berry pickers and down payments are going to be a normal requirement again, if you factor in all of the foreclosures that have already happened, look at the high number that are expected when loans reset for borrowers who have adjustable ARM mortgages and look at the interest rate on a jumbo loan which is presently required to purchase just about every SFR in CA…………..you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that this rocket had to crash.
I sincerely hope that you can find what you want within a reasonable timetable but if you’re presently renting and going to stay in CA, I would strongly advise you to continue doing so for a minimum of two more years. If things haven’t gone down as much as the majority of people on this forum (and others) are saying at the end of two years, then you can look at buying but with all of the factors that I mentioned above coming into play, I think you’ll be a very happy camper that you waited.
Good luck to you whatever you decide.
