Just my opinion on rising prices and the sentiment that this is the bottom (which would officially be the third bottom in as many years). It might as well prove to be real bottom this time but based on past history of last 3 years (Spring/Summer bounce followed by lower low’s in Fall), I wouldn’t be too confident.

Strangely, the sentiment has also been the same in previous 2-3 bottom calls as well. Haven’t we seen this before? Stock market bounces back, rates at historic lows, prices start to creep up, etc. Yet it all ends badly as prices are lower in the Fall and the people who bought in Spring “frenzy” realize they are down 5% on their home.

This is just like buying a stock. Housing has to show clear lasting momentum through the entire year to convince of a real bottom. What I feel is different this time is that places like Phoenix, Miami and Vegas seem to be creating some sort of a bottom. That, to me, is a good sign.