20 story buildings there is a fantasy, splitting lots will just make it worse as 4-plexes pop up in backyards on the larger lots. I’m not faulting you brian, history and long term trends are not a young man’s game.
I’m with sdr on this one, an area’s mid to long term future depends on the original housing stock and the location, but the original housing stock is more important.
Here are some examples in San Diego. Kensington had nicer homes than the area between 40th and about 50th street. They were larger and better appointed than those between kensington and north park. Kensington homes were nice enough to refurbish and were not zoned for splitting and apartment mixes, thus it retained its appeal. A mile or two away it declined, because the original homes were crappier and the zoning looser.
Another example but of an entirely different theory is Rancho Sante Fe. It’s not ocean front, but strict zoning and large lots and nice original homes means it’s worth it to rebuild or refurbish. Same could be said of Mt. Helix and countless other areas where outdated but nice always beats outdated and crappy. Clairemont will have a more difficult time becoming hip and being redeveloped one house at a time as let’s say North Park or South park or mission hills, because those old houses by the park are worth saving, the post ww2 blah boxes in clairemont don’t have the same appeal. Changing the zoning will accelerate the decline, which is the opposite for an area like little italy, where density is a helper. Clairmeont’s best chance is to remain sfr’s, keep the zoning tight and in time it’s location may bail it out. What was once a suburb, may end up a rare sfr area that ends up so central once the county doubles in size. That’s it’s future, to hold fast to the zoning restrictions and allow the city to come to it. When this county is 4 or 5 million in size, if clairemont is still just sfr’s, it may become fertile ground for 3 wall knockdowns and redevelopment. It could be the next Costa Mesa. But it will take 20 years or so, but it very well may happen. The next level up, tierrasanta, mm, etc. are larger and won’t ever fall as hard, they will keep chugging along, while linda vista will never be cool, cause it never was and the density zoning cripples it.
To see similar examples ahead in the timeline you have to look to L.A., areas that split lots and mixed in apartments went to hell, while old suburbs that held firm on zoning saw revitalization once the city grew past them and they became central without actually moving. Zoning restrictions may bother some idealists, but there are so many examples of how it actually promotes redevelopment. Don’t attract developers, stand firm until you become their only option.
