Here is where you continue to murder your case. Leaving the private sector for the safety and security of the public sector at less pay is one thing. Why would any rational human being making $100K in the public sector with all the safety and security they get leave for a lower paying, less safe, less secure job in the private sector? The answer is they wouldnt and they dont.

The hysteria of the bubble was something we all agree was a once in a lifetime thing. Lots of naive people got in RE related businesses thinking there was easy money. There wasnt and nearly all of those folks are now gone from the business. That craziness is gone not return any time soon so spare us the examples from the bubble era. That climate doesnt exist anymore and probably wont again in our lifetime.

The “jobs” you named arent jobs that pay that much they are businesses someone could start taking on substantial risk and making a big investment that may pay off with a $100K profit down the road. I am still waiting for 5 jobs (as in someone hiring you with a salary) that someone in the public sector without a college degree could get. A job that would pay as well or better than their current gig. A job with benefits, security, a pension and liberal paid vacations. They dont exist.