It’s not the economy, at least not on the 15. Up until they opened up the new lanes it seemed almost as bad as it had ever been. I never noticed any reduction in traffic regardless of the unemployment rate. I don’t drive it with the same regularity that paramount does. But over the last 20 years I’ve had chunks of time where I went six months to a year of doing it, my guess is a total of about 5 or 6 years combined in that 20. I’ve been doing it for a few months now and the before/after of the express lane was more than dramatic. I don’t even go on the express lane, just its existence makes the normal lanes brake-light free. I’m about to rotate my location in a month or two to something closer, so it may be a few years before I have to make that drive regularly, but I won’t fear it like I have in the past.
I’m not sure the spread between 6% and 10% unemployment affects arterial commute routes by taking 4% of the drivers off the freeways. That 4% demographically is not entirely made up of cummuters. A lot of it is young people, construction trades and lower paid people who likely use public transit or live close to work. I’m sure some of that 4% are bread winning professionals commuting to the suburbs, but not the majority.
Then look at the demographics of where you live and connect the dots
and that site only looks at people over 25, and is not regional, but it’s enough data to suggest the demogrpahics would probably ring true regionally and under 25 would be even more dramatic. Bedroom communities would be the least affected, thus commuting would be less affected by unemployment rates. It’s a stretch, but it makes sense to me based on what I see on the road.