IN all my fairness, my prediction was based upon my belief that option arm/toxic loans would get wiped out quickly which they did.

I beleived those with long fixed periods (10 and 30 yr fixed rate loans) would be fine but I figured on a 2nd wave from all the people that took out 5/1 ARM’s between 2004 and 2007 getting hit with resets when rates went way up which they didnt. The low rates minimized much of that and many of these folks have refied into even lower rates. So while it didnt play out exactly as I expected the timeline seems like it should be spot on IMO.

I guess it really speaks to how dynamic all the factors influencing things are.