To be honest, I never did understand the pricing over there to begin with. Another area I think is destined to get hammered are the new subdivisions they’re building over at the back gate of Camp Pendleton. If you are who you shop with, these buyers are paying $1mil to shop with the gangsters that live in the older subdivisions off of Vandegrift.

How do you define “strong economy”?

I would define it as
1) a diversified job base (i.e. not relying on one sector such as real estate),
2) rising employment in jobs paying above-average wages for that area,
3) prospects of new companies moving here or current companies expanding,
4) partnerships between industry and universities which lead to research and development, and
5) a variety of industries/businesses that are recession proof.
6) Any others?

Does San Diego have ANY of the above?

When Inc. and other magazines rate cities for their strong economies, they are looking at job growth and tax revenue, regardless of source. An economy built on construction, lending, and MEW-related business like retail and restaurants, certainly meets their criteria, but a savvy investor would look behind the numbers and realize it is a “weak economy”. I surely wouldn’t invest there.

I was seriously checking into that Yuma land deal, but despite the claims of a strong economy, Yuma is one more example of a city that is weak: dependent on construction and MEW for its fuel. So all the realtors and financial planners who try to sell me their wares, I say, “I’m not stupid enough to fall for it. Look for another sucker.”

It’s about time I smacked down this BS about San Diego’s economy being weak or dying.

San Diego has #’s 1-5. If you are breathing in this town, you can get a tech job. Heck, even In-N-Out pays over $9/hr.

1-2) Biotech is very strong and pays well. Try researching companies like Illumnia, Amylin – there are hundreds of companies from 2-person startups on up. Those big new buildings off the 56? Being eyeballed by biotech priced out of Sorrento Valley. What about the port of San Diego — the only major shipbuilding yard on the West Coast. Is it at all plausible that being a border town generates commerce? K2 and Calloway? General Lock? PetCo? Enough diversity yet?

3) Does Genentech starting a gigantic manufacturing plant in Oceanside count as a worthy company moving here? Expanding? Profitline, AMEC, SonTek (ok, these are small companies). How about General Atomics expanding in Poway?

4) UCSD which has a tech transfer office set to assist with licensing and startups. There is the Scripps Research Institute, Salk Insitute, and the Burnham Insitute. These are some of the most prestigious biomedical researchers west of Cambridge, bar none. The San Diego Supercomputer Center and the Jacobs School have generated numerous companies.

5) Does the Navy count as recession-proof? Or the Marines? Coast Guard? Or how about all the local defense research, ie civilian jobs? SAIC? Lockheed Martin? L-3? SPAWAR?

However, none of this means that people, not evey highly paid professionals and researchers, can afford a house. You can earn over $100K a year in SD and it’ll buy you a trash heap at current prices.

“Gas prices are horrible, but not so high as to actually change driving habits.”

Gas would have to sell regularly for over 4 dollars a gallon before people start to think about changing their driving habits. However, it should be noted that it is awfully difficult to change one’s driving habits when one is driving 100+ miles round trip because they just had to buy that house in the ‘burbs because they feared being priced out of the market forever.

Also with regards to San Diego’s “robust” economy, I’m in the biotech/pharma sector and this part of the economy is not as strong as one might think. Merck closed its operations last year and Pfizer is in a holding pattern with their layoffs. Additionally, Pfizer has a bad history of keeping a large number of their employees on contract and not converting them to full time. Neurocrine just got hammered because their sleep aid drug will not be approved at the dose Neurocrine wanted unless Neurocrine conducts more trials. Therefore, layoffs are likely in the near future. Genentech was a huge boon to the county though and all thanks to Biogen-Idec for laying the groundwork (literally). They are the model company. Sure there are a lot of startup pharmaceutical companies (mine inclueded) but life at the startups is extremely volatile.

Overall I would say San Diego’s economy is in good shape and would likely weather a downturn but this might be negated by the loss of housing related jobs. The professor made a pretty convincing case that this might be the albatross to the county’s economic health in the future.

“End of line.”

That 21% drop…

The house you refer to, isn’t that a 21% drop?

Yes, a 21% drop in the asking price. Asking prices are not very informative. An unrealistic seller may list the same house for $1 mil or even $2 mil. A true market price is not what people ask for an item, but rather what the item actually sells for.

The house in question was purchased for $813,908 on 11/12/2004 and is now listed for $726,000. That’s an 11% drop. MLS listing says house was occupied for just 60 days. With holding cost, selling costs, I suspect the loss is already 20%.

Let’s see how long it takes to sell.

The house was listed 1 year ago at $920K and has been steadily reduced. It was last listed at $800K and didnt sell in 180 days. They are on their 3rd realtor and the home is now vacant. There are 7 homes on the market, 4 expired listings and 3 cancelled listings. Only 1 house has ever successfuly sold on this street. It sold at $1.1M and one sale does not a market make. Lots of unrealistic pricing out there.