I have family members who own rentals in most of the towns you mentioned. Over the last decade, Sun City or other nearby 55+ developments have been the most stable tennants. We have one in San Jacinto, bad credit scores, weak market, pretty ghettoish. But the numbers you quoted are too good to ignore and low end has it’s benefits for rentals. The quickest rental in the family is the South Temecula townhouse, probably vacant for two or three days between renters (san jacinto sat for two months this year). But the Temecula condo cost more, rents for 1500 and cost 150k, but that same place cost 350k a few years ago and the rent was the same while the San jacinto one never broke 200k and I think they paid 90k and it rents for $900. Sun city doesn’t have the best ratio but the elderly renters are easy on the place and stay till they die or moved to a facility. If you’ve got cash, there was a complex in Murrieta near madison that was ineligible for financing due to a class action lawsuit over the pool with the builder and 1200-1400 rentals were going for 100k last year, but all cash.

I tend to look at the job picture locally. Temecula and Murrieta have the most jobs compared the other outlier areas especially in the renter demographic. They also have more to do for younger people. But if the rent is close and the need for space isn’t too high, the average Hemet renter would move. So for condos, southwest is better. But for SFR’s, they don’t pencil out as well as some of the areas you mentioned. You can’t find the scenario you mentioned (12ok for 1900 sq ft sfr) in Murr or tem.

Right now, the 215 is just god awful as far as traffic but construction is underway so if you are talking 10 years out, that should not be too much of a consideration.

This will be really hard for people from outside the area to comprehend, but in this little pond, Tem/Mur is where the cool kids hang. Every time I’m out with friends locally, I’ll meet a woman from Hemet, San jacinto, etc. and every time they talk about how they want to move down this way but either they work up there or it’s too expensive down here. For a San Diegan, this is all a boring wasteland, but for people in a 30 mile radius, there is a difference and the appreciation upside and the rental stability is always better if you are where everyone wants to be.

For serious buy and hold, Cal State San marcos just opened up a satellite campus here (and nursing school), the current location is a former elementary school near Paloma Del Sol. I attended a few classes at SDSU’s sattelite in San Marcos in the 1980’s (in a strip mall with a jeromes)and it was a matter of time before it became it’s own thing. I am going to watch the success of that school over the next few years because wherever they go it will be a boon for rentals since there are very limited rentals, just something to think about.