stop the bubble hype… If I were to bet a dime on anything, that bet would be that the majority of people who don’t post, but maybe read this site are people who are very much in the same boat as you and I. They want to purchase a home and they are looking to purchase for the long run. They are not speculators, not trying to flip a home or anything like that. Just pretty much trying to find a home in a nice neighborhood with a good school district. Profile wise I would imagine they are all 6 figure wage earners with good educations, and some decent money saved for a downpayment.
I have said ad nauseum that purchasing a home involves more factors then the sheer economics of what will happen in the future. I don’t lower the boom on people who have recently purchased a home, or who recently purchase a home. I don’t think it is the best economic decision but that aside, there are tremendous benefits from owning a home, including harmony in the family…My personal read on the market is that it will continue to depreciate over the next few years and the severity will be determined by the 10 year treasury yield and the default rate. Unfortunately I will not be able to wait out the cycle.
My read for the people who are going to buy now, just be aware, get as good of a deal as you can, negotiate, get rebate, just be tough. Yes the builders are going to weather the storm much better then many people think. They are savy, they have hug margins, they know how to control the rate of new releases to keep the demand high, and they know when and how to price competitively. I don’t think that the future will be that the builders in these nice areas will be slashing pricing. I think that there could be REO or distressed sales opportunities for people who purchased and cannot afford the homes. How many of these opportunities? Not sure.
Anyways, the site here has a diversity of opinions which I think is really good. Unfortunately it gets personal sometimes, and perhaps there are even shades of racism which is sad. Yet I think that even some of the uber bears have done very good factual research. I think that is why sometimes the more optimistic posters get slammed so hard. Many people who have come in and posted justifications for buying have used more speculative arguments, chiefly that the builders are still selling out phases. Undoubtedly this is true. However I think that it is a misconception to think that the entire market is tied to these phases selling out. On the other hand no uber bear can win an argument that simply states, my family will be happier in a home that we can afford, and that we own, and that economically we understand what is happening.
