Scrffy’s location (L.A. or O.C) probably has a lot to do with his perspective. Because those areas do have more employment and more diversified employment they are lagging behind the residential areas that support them.

Those more centralized areas haven’t yet reached that tipping point where it’s obvious even to the layperson that there are problems with home values. He cites the median, which we already know is a lagging indicator; he cites anecdotal observations of the retail trends. He doesn’t delve deeper into the median to understand that the data distribution is different or that on a house-to-house basis there are a lot of market segments in those areas that are already demonstrating declines.

These markets are connected, though, and as these trends continue these areas will get sucked further into the declines. Eventually even Scruffy will come to recognize that his house of cards is subject to changes in wind direction and the winds of change are currently blowing from the east.