“Employment Numbers Are Worse “Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted
First, I have to address some more government data that can be misleading. We were told Thursday that initial unemployment claims were “only” 524,000. The talking heads immediately said that was proof the economy is simply bad, not falling off a cliff. Again, like last week, that seasonally adjusted number masks the real number, which was 952,151. That is not a typo. There were almost 1 million newly unemployed last week! That is up over 400,000 from the same week in 2008, while the seasonally adjusted number was up only 200,000. Last week the real number was 726,000, so this is a material rise of over 225,000, yet the seasonally adjusted number suggests a rise of only 57,000 from last week.
The continuing claims data leaped over 500,000 to (again, not a typo!) 5,832,746. The length of time people are staying unemployed is also rising rapidly. We are up almost 1.5 million new continuing claims in just the last five weeks. That is a stunning rise of over 30% in unemployment claims in just over a month. The data is truly ugly, but it is what it is.”
…
“It is likely to be 2011 before the housing market finds a real bottom and housing construction can begin to rise.”
…
“Helping keep people in their homes when they are already over their heads in debt is not really stimulus, however noble it sounds. Over 50% of mortgages that are reduced and rewritten are delinquent again within 6 months. That does not bode well for future efforts. Better to let the home go at some price to someone who can afford it. Tough love, but realistic.”
…
“Spending on green technologies? Creating a million new jobs in clean tech? Get real. How do we go from less than a 100,000 real clean-tech jobs to 1,000,000 in five years, let alone one? And three million new jobs? Really? From where? What government program could do this? In what universe? It makes for nice feel-good talk, but has no bearing on reality.
Don’t get me wrong. In the midst of the late 1970s malaise, when the gloom was as thick as it is today, the correct answer to the question, “Where will all the new jobs come from?” was “I don’t know, but they will.” And it is still the correct answer. The US free market system is still the most dynamic economy in the world, and I truly believe that we will see new industries spring up, which will be a jobs dynamo. But that will take time. It is not a short-term solution, and by short-term I mean 1-2 years.”
…
“We are in a serious recession. We have to allow time for both the housing market and the credit markets to heal. This will take at least two years. I think we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer.”
4plex: This is the key sentence for me: “I think we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer.” Not a good thing in an economy where almost 70% of the activity comes from the consumer.
kewp
January 19, 2009 @
7:22 AM
What many of you folks are What many of you folks are missing is that money invested in job creation keeps circling through the economy and creates even more jobs.
Those contractors changing light bulbs in Federal buildings still have to pay rent an buy food, for example.
4plexowner
January 19, 2009 @
7:29 AM
Government Regulators Aided Government Regulators Aided IndyMac Cover-Up, Maybe Others
“banking regulators actually approached the bank with the suggestion of falsifying deposit dates to satisfy banking rules — even if it disguised the bank’s health to the public”
4plex: the key criminal in this scandal is still being paid $230K/yr of taxpayer money
kewp, this is the same govt you are referring to
4plexowner
January 19, 2009 @
7:32 AM
“Who would have ever “Who would have ever envisioned 10 years ago that the nation which is the model of free market capitalism would have become completely dependent on a Communist nation to finance its way of life.
Lastly, note that all major categories of US Debt were offloaded by foreign investors in November 2008. Bonds, Agency debt (fannie and freddie) along with US corporate issues were summarily dumped. The only US securities that showed net inflows were US equities.”
4plex: looks like the foreigners are getting tired of paying for our lighbulbs and the people who change them
peterb
January 19, 2009 @
8:32 AM
The govt is currently about The govt is currently about 30% of our economy. Their solution is now to get it up to or over 50%. We all know how well socialized economies work, right?
j
January 19, 2009 @
9:49 AM
If the government lead If the government lead infrastructure plan works to help the economy, where will still be a smaller recession short after that. It happened after WWII. Jobs will need to shift from government to private sector, and the shifting of resources always takes some time. It also happened in the 90’s with base closures and the down sizing of defense contractors.
This will be a long recession/depressionette. The pain stops getting worse in 2010, the pain lasts ’til 2012.
cr
January 19, 2009 @
10:21 AM
We’re turning into East We’re turning into East Germany.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some day all blogs that point out the futility of the the Government’s reckless spending spree will be burned.
I read an article in Time the other day about how Government is wrongly seen as the enemy and we should let them get bigger.
Sure…whose going to pay for it? Bigger is NOT better. More fat cat bureaucrats (which is all we’re going to get with Obama) will only clog the system up more.
afx114
January 19, 2009 @
10:42 AM
Deficit spending increased Deficit spending increased under the Bush admin more than all prior presidents combined. Yet somehow, Obama is the big bad commie spender guy. Don’t get me wrong, Obama’s gonna spend a lot of money, but lets be realistic here and give credit where credit is due.
Personally, I can’t wait till the potholes in my street get fixed!
January 19, 2009 @ 5:31 AM
“Employment Numbers Are Worse
“Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted
First, I have to address some more government data that can be misleading. We were told Thursday that initial unemployment claims were “only” 524,000. The talking heads immediately said that was proof the economy is simply bad, not falling off a cliff. Again, like last week, that seasonally adjusted number masks the real number, which was 952,151. That is not a typo. There were almost 1 million newly unemployed last week! That is up over 400,000 from the same week in 2008, while the seasonally adjusted number was up only 200,000. Last week the real number was 726,000, so this is a material rise of over 225,000, yet the seasonally adjusted number suggests a rise of only 57,000 from last week.
The continuing claims data leaped over 500,000 to (again, not a typo!) 5,832,746. The length of time people are staying unemployed is also rising rapidly. We are up almost 1.5 million new continuing claims in just the last five weeks. That is a stunning rise of over 30% in unemployment claims in just over a month. The data is truly ugly, but it is what it is.”
…
“It is likely to be 2011 before the housing market finds a real bottom and housing construction can begin to rise.”
…
“Helping keep people in their homes when they are already over their heads in debt is not really stimulus, however noble it sounds. Over 50% of mortgages that are reduced and rewritten are delinquent again within 6 months. That does not bode well for future efforts. Better to let the home go at some price to someone who can afford it. Tough love, but realistic.”
…
“Spending on green technologies? Creating a million new jobs in clean tech? Get real. How do we go from less than a 100,000 real clean-tech jobs to 1,000,000 in five years, let alone one? And three million new jobs? Really? From where? What government program could do this? In what universe? It makes for nice feel-good talk, but has no bearing on reality.
Don’t get me wrong. In the midst of the late 1970s malaise, when the gloom was as thick as it is today, the correct answer to the question, “Where will all the new jobs come from?” was “I don’t know, but they will.” And it is still the correct answer. The US free market system is still the most dynamic economy in the world, and I truly believe that we will see new industries spring up, which will be a jobs dynamo. But that will take time. It is not a short-term solution, and by short-term I mean 1-2 years.”
…
“We are in a serious recession. We have to allow time for both the housing market and the credit markets to heal. This will take at least two years. I think we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer.”
http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1232323191.php
4plex: This is the key sentence for me: “I think we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer.” Not a good thing in an economy where almost 70% of the activity comes from the consumer.
January 19, 2009 @ 7:22 AM
What many of you folks are
What many of you folks are missing is that money invested in job creation keeps circling through the economy and creates even more jobs.
Those contractors changing light bulbs in Federal buildings still have to pay rent an buy food, for example.
January 19, 2009 @ 7:29 AM
Government Regulators Aided
Government Regulators Aided IndyMac Cover-Up, Maybe Others
“banking regulators actually approached the bank with the suggestion of falsifying deposit dates to satisfy banking rules — even if it disguised the bank’s health to the public”
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=6658365
4plex: the key criminal in this scandal is still being paid $230K/yr of taxpayer money
kewp, this is the same govt you are referring to
January 19, 2009 @ 7:32 AM
“Who would have ever
“Who would have ever envisioned 10 years ago that the nation which is the model of free market capitalism would have become completely dependent on a Communist nation to finance its way of life.
Lastly, note that all major categories of US Debt were offloaded by foreign investors in November 2008. Bonds, Agency debt (fannie and freddie) along with US corporate issues were summarily dumped. The only US securities that showed net inflows were US equities.”
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/tic-data-for-november-2008.pdf
4plex: looks like the foreigners are getting tired of paying for our lighbulbs and the people who change them
January 19, 2009 @ 8:32 AM
The govt is currently about
The govt is currently about 30% of our economy. Their solution is now to get it up to or over 50%. We all know how well socialized economies work, right?
January 19, 2009 @ 9:49 AM
If the government lead
If the government lead infrastructure plan works to help the economy, where will still be a smaller recession short after that. It happened after WWII. Jobs will need to shift from government to private sector, and the shifting of resources always takes some time. It also happened in the 90’s with base closures and the down sizing of defense contractors.
This will be a long recession/depressionette. The pain stops getting worse in 2010, the pain lasts ’til 2012.
January 19, 2009 @ 10:21 AM
We’re turning into East
We’re turning into East Germany.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some day all blogs that point out the futility of the the Government’s reckless spending spree will be burned.
I read an article in Time the other day about how Government is wrongly seen as the enemy and we should let them get bigger.
Sure…whose going to pay for it? Bigger is NOT better. More fat cat bureaucrats (which is all we’re going to get with Obama) will only clog the system up more.
January 19, 2009 @ 10:42 AM
Deficit spending increased
Deficit spending increased under the Bush admin more than all prior presidents combined. Yet somehow, Obama is the big bad commie spender guy. Don’t get me wrong, Obama’s gonna spend a lot of money, but lets be realistic here and give credit where credit is due.
Personally, I can’t wait till the potholes in my street get fixed!