kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.