1. Corporate profits soar 100% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago, while GDP jumps 4.5%. closer to to half right. GDP increase so far 2.7 2010Q1, 5.44 2009Q4 %
2. Housing and jobs fail to revive.
3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. Did with respect to EU/Pound Sterling
7. Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year. – maybe off by a bit.. since it happened towards the end of the first half
7. Kass predicts that Goldman Sachs (GS) goes private. wouldn’t be surprised if this does occur, considering ‘financial reform’ bill will limit the hedging that GS can do. Most banks currently do less than the limit.. except GS
So far didn’t happen:
4. The price of gold topples. He said it was going to break down from $900.. it went up.. now around $1250
5. Central banks tighten earlier than expected. – TBD
6. A Middle East peace is upended due to an attack by Israel on Iran. TBD
9. Second-half 2010 GDP growth turns flat. TBD
10. Rate-sensitive stocks outperform; metals underperform…. TBD – Traditionally, rate sensitive stocks tend to be dividend stocks – because investors look primarily at return rates. The correlation is usually negative – so I do have a slight problem with this prediction.[/quote]
Kind of hard to make a list of 20 things and have them all right : )
Kass was one of the original housing/equities bears but what set him apart from his one trick cronies was his call for equities to bottom sometime in March 09. Interesting to note that he’s currently heavy into the mortgage insurers, a move I have been hesitant to duplicate at current prices. Yeah, all in all it’s good to be skeptical
even if someone’s been right in the past…
