I dunno about having a middle or the road perspective. If we go by the RE clock, a 1% per month change in value is a rapidly moving market. At 2% per month it’s flying. If I believe in a 1%/month declining market that makes me a pretty solid bear compared to anyone the Union-Trib interviews for RE stories.
When people here talk about big annual losses I always get the impression they’re thinking 30% or more at a whack. I guess that could happen, but I’m not anticipating that.
Of course, I was wrong about how long the last bust would last (I called it 2 years too early), I was wrong about when the last peak would top out (3 years early), and I was way wrong about how far that peak would reach (by 200%). It’s not like I have a great track record or anything.
I knew this peak would end at some point (duh); I knew there would be declines in volume and an increase in forced sales of various types (duh); and I knew that as those added up they would add to the decline (duh). In other words, I know about as much as anyone else who follows Piggington’s and probably not an ounce more.
