but…i remember a co-worker showing me a front page wall st j on tech stocks in 1996 and discussing the efficient market hypothesis with him and trying to tell him (in my very young but authoritative voice) that the market has probably priced in all the risks and benefits to these things. he didn’t listen of course (even though I had gotten the second highest grade in my securities regulation class at a top law school) and made a bunch of money shortly thereafter. 4 years of madness ensued. my education wasn’t worth much in reality.

gold is different, in that (i) where the hell do most people buy and sell it? it’s difficult to get real physical ; and (2) i think people are just just just starting to get the gold story, of why the dollar may not ultimately triumph….there is just so little money flowing to gold and so much elsewhere. i’ve seen goldbug charts on this, it’s astonishing. it was just a take a small diversion of moneys to cause a humpngous stampede. we’re not there yet. it may never happen. but this isn’t the end of some crazy blow off top.