But I find myself COMPELLED to bet that sometime during the next 24 (or 36) months, we’ll see markets go way below today’s lows, as in 20%, or 30%, or more. That’s why I like the leap put options on the indexes with expiration out to at least late 2011. But those got A LOT more expensive during the last week!
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I agree with your logic (although I don’t directly bet on these things). Having said that, Doug Short does a lot of great long-term chart work and this one is my favorites (very Grantham-esque):
That trend line has 140 years of “truth” behind it. I wouldn’t bet against it. Translation: At some point we’re either (1) headed materially lower, or (2) the S&P isn’t going to return much over the next 10+ years. Either way, the S&P looks like a sucker’s bet from here.
