Just my opinion, but given the Class Envy Entitlement sensibility that prevails in our country, no way they will replace the income tax with a VAT. They will supplement the income tax with a VAT, but not get rid of the income tax, at least not on “the wealthy”. Far from it. If you are perceived as “rich” you will be demonized and targeted to have your income confiscated and redistributed. It’s only fair. Or social justice. Or whatever. (Sorry if I am channeling Brian).
There will be VAT refunds for the “poor” just like there is the “earned” income tax credit in the current income tax system for redistribution purposes.