SD Realtor,
I think you have a very keen mind and are honest.
When I talk to clients about bonds many of them do not see the down-side to bonds. That is becasue I tell them that we have witnessed a 30 year bull run in bonds. I think that your view is indeed based on your experience but that you have been selling real estate in Southern California during the best time ever to sell real estate in Southern California. I do see that you see a crash coming – can you tell when will come? Becasue if I buy a home here it is not just a one or two year decsion it is 30 year decision. When will the 20k homes in shadow inventory come on to the market in SD county? When will the 2million homes in the shawdow inventory in the country come on the market? What is going to happen to real estate in southern california when the interest rate curve doubles?
These are the considerations that many “true” buyers of real estate need to think about. As for the “flipper market” I think of them the same way I do the guy on the offramp looking for a handout – if our government did not give these people a handout they would be driving 1979 Corrola’s…not a 2009 Jag. I saw and spoke to many of the realtors in the day about how I was a real whimp for not stepping up and buying a 850k house (now around 500k) to trust many people who are bullish on the housing market anywhere.
As for trying to time when this thing breaks down, it is the most common error in bubbles for people to think “I will get out before everyone else does”. No thanks.
No one is addressing the shadow inventory, no one is talking about the fraud perpetraded on SD county by people in your profession who have never been looked at. No one is addressing that all subsities eventually stop. No one is addressing the morality of living in a “free” county yet having to pay for someone else’s mortgage. My view is that the collusion amongst realtors is so rampant -that when the truth gets out real esate here will falter again. All IMHO.