I’m not a regular poster on this blog, although I have been a regular visitor and thread-reader for the last few years. Good stuff and (usually) entertaining.
You “Piggs” of all people should be all over this. Private college costs have been just as much a bubble of housing, and for exactly the same reason: easy credit. With the easy credit (e.g., HELOCs) gone, people (read “parents”) no longer have as much access to the money to pay whatever ridiculous amount the colleges want. Actual supply and demand kicks in based on people’s incomes. whole new ballgame.
Colleges will scream bloody murder to the federal government to prop up high prices by giving out money or guaranteeing higher loans, or whatever it takes. They will threaten, cajole, etc., but the fed can only do so much price support without printing too much money.
Separately, the number of kids going to college for the last few years has also been a “bubble,” and (as I understand it) is starting a steady decline for the next decade as the population (excepting poor immigrants) ages.
Between the decrease in easy money (most important factor), and the decrease in number of kids, private colleges will have to drop prices to compete, or they will go out of business. Just like houses in Las Vegas, there are too many small private colleges. Something’s got to give.
Public colleges are another story, especially in broke states like California. They will go up in price, since the federal, state and local government employees who are bleeding us dry will not sacrifice their sweet compensation deals for continued subsidized college education.
Having said this, we have a son attending SF State, and despite the steep increases (percentage wise) over the last few years, the tuition is still way too law, resulting in there being a serious shortage of classes. Politics dictate that the state colleges and universities can only raise tuition so much a year, and the system has been so heavily subsidized for such a long time that when California suddenly says “sorry, we’re broke,” cutting classes is all they can do. It’s not like the administrators will fire themselves or take a haircut in pay and benefits.
Saving a lot of money for college just means the colleges will have that much more to take from you.
