Scaredy, I’m convinced your fears are justified, but that could be because I’m sort of in a pickle where I’m going to probably be buying in a few months despite having the same fears you do.

In fact, I was going to start a thread with my dilemma, but since it’s almost the same as yours, I’ll put it here:

I’ve been waiting for a long time for this particular lot in a tract of new homes. It’ll probably be released in July. My prediction is that I’ll buy in July, after mortgage rates have started to go up but before prices have dropped as a result. After the 8k thing expires but before prices have dropped as a result. Right before the infamous shadow inventory starts to really hit the market. Right before Carmel Valley, which has floated along with very little damage, starts to finally feel the pain.

On the one hand, I can afford the house easily (I could pay cash, but probably won’t.) And I love the location and the house. And it’ll be nice to be settled in. On the other hand, I’ve waited all this time to buy, and to buy after 5 years and then have things finally go down significantly (in Carmel Valley) would really, really suck.

So, if I didn’t have this particular house I really wanted, I’d probably wait. (Or, if Pardee jacks up the price, I’ll wait anyway). Obviously prices will increase at some point, but virtually nobody who isn’t a Realtor is predicting that there’ll be any significant appreciation any time soon. So there’s a possible upside to waiting and, other than not settling in a house you want, not much downside to waiting.

Of course, if you’re in one of the areas where prices are 30, 40, 50 percent off the peak, that’s a different story. Probably not as much upside to waiting.