Had the Q1 earnings come in at or below expectations, then I would tend to agree with the recession forecast. But given that Q1 earnings were so strongly buttressed by international sales/revenue, it’s tough to stick with that forecast at this point.
That said, if someone wants to play the bear game, I think there are opportunities for shorts and puts, but I would focus on sectors and companies that have little international exposure and strong housing exposure. Off the top of my head, furniture companies, maybe discretionary spending (certainly discretionary spending focused in bubble RE markets,) maybe lenders, but be wary of potential buyouts.
